One thing I'd like the network to estimate properly is the probability of a win (any kind of win) and the probability of a gammon win or loss from the starting position. To do that, of course, I need some independent estimate to compare against.

I checked in gnubg to see its estimates, and reproduce them here for reference (assumes the player has the dice):

Probability of any kind of win from the starting position: 51.9%

Probability of a gammon win (incl backgammon): 15.1%

Probability of a gammon loss (incl backgammon): 13.6%

I checked in gnubg to see its estimates, and reproduce them here for reference (assumes the player has the dice):

Probability of any kind of win from the starting position: 51.9%

Probability of a gammon win (incl backgammon): 15.1%

Probability of a gammon loss (incl backgammon): 13.6%

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